Legendb
0xae4a54cb936bfa16b15f3b12f8c4a3ec5d426f51
- Realised P&L
- $-305.21
- Volume
- $18.7k
- Markets traded
- 287
- Open portfolio
- $104.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded287
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 August 3-9? · No | 0.995 | 0.991 | $104.55 | −$0.45 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.80 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.00 |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.24at 0.910MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$19.09at 0.750Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$4.71at 0.850US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?
- +$2.07at 0.941Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?
- +$1.26at 0.988Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 27-August 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 04:58 | Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.9953095391 | $105.00 |
| 08-01 08:34 | Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.988 | $104.00 |
| 07-21 10:25 | Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 July 20-26? | BUY | 0.9970987752 | $104.00 |
| 07-13 19:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 July 13-19? | BUY | 0.998001996 | $100.00 |
| 06-22 16:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? | BUY | 0.996 | $100.00 |
| 06-15 07:37 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.92 | $36.00 |
| 06-14 07:31 | Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.609999993 | $33.00 |
| 06-14 07:31 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.9409999987 | $33.00 |
| 06-14 07:30 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.9099999992 | $33.00 |
| 06-13 06:59 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | BUY | 0.5699999953 | $49.73 |
| 06-13 06:58 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.5899999953 | $50.00 |
| 06-09 18:35 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? | BUY | 0.8195858597 | $107.46 |
| 06-09 18:35 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.91 | $108.59 |
| 06-04 13:25 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.75 | $89.50 |
| 06-02 16:18 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.009 | $9.00 |