opid
0xad78c57f3683e6256f221d5c2b81f6c585e4e52b
- Realised P&L
- $203.36
- Volume
- $13.0k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $51.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August? · No | 0.990 | 0.981 | $19.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · No | 0.975 | 0.975 | $17.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will XRP reach $2.20 in August? · No | 0.996 | 0.993 | $13.96 | −$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$104.33at 0.962Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?
- +$93.53at 0.930Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September?
- +$1.23at 0.940Will Solana reach $210 in May?
- +$0.56at 0.966Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?
- +$0.48at 0.950Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 09:05 | Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | BUY | 0.975 | $18.00 |
| 08-03 09:05 | Will XRP reach $2.20 in August? | BUY | 0.996 | $14.00 |
| 08-03 09:04 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August? | BUY | 0.99 | $20.00 |
| 08-03 09:02 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $11.98 |
| 08-03 09:02 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.945 | $12.99 |
| 08-03 09:02 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.98 | $26.97 |
| 07-30 14:47 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.9809999995 | $27.00 |
| 07-30 14:47 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9609999989 | $12.00 |
| 07-30 14:47 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9449999753 | $13.00 |
| 07-30 14:46 | Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $15.99 |
| 07-30 14:46 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $15.99 |
| 06-30 05:11 | Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.00 |
| 06-30 05:11 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.00 |
| 06-30 05:10 | Will Solana reach $90 in June? | BUY | 0.997 | $20.00 |
| 06-30 05:10 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.00 |