4knort
0xaca58a11e18911452382289b6867405299df2709
- Realised P&L
- $186.61
- Volume
- $86.3k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $255.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$746.22at 0.623US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$547.50at 0.358Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$301.71at 0.560Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
- +$201.01at 0.630US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$200.00at 0.200UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 15:41 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | BUY | 0.4577114423 | $200.00 |
| 06-21 14:01 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.6799999995 | $300.00 |
| 06-11 23:24 | UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2 | $50.00 |
| 06-11 23:24 | UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.5099999986 | $50.00 |
| 06-11 23:20 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1899999995 | $300.00 |
| 06-11 23:20 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.3899999994 | $200.00 |
| 05-06 08:38 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | SELL | 0.10852064 | $135.65 |
| 05-05 09:47 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY | 0.16 | $200.00 |
| 04-24 11:01 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL | 0.94 | $839.28 |
| 04-24 11:01 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $1.4k |
| 04-16 12:39 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999998 | $920.47 |
| 04-15 06:49 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999996 | $500.00 |
| 04-15 06:42 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY | 0.5599999996 | $500.00 |
| 04-15 06:37 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | SELL | 0.2486496504 | $183.14 |
| 04-15 00:21 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | BUY | 0.2715359519 | $200.00 |