PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0xaae320063dd0cb03837e8d41250e234dfe32aaed

Realised P&L
$1.61
Volume
$654.00
Markets traded
14
Open portfolio
$52.16

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded14
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample11 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No0.9000.935$12.15+$0.45
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? · No0.8400.915$8.23+$0.67
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? · No0.9630.964$6.75+$0.01
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.8410.910$4.55+$0.34
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No0.8900.875$4.38$0.07
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.2000.165$4.29$0.90
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No0.5000.830$4.15+$1.65
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes0.1280.125$3.25$0.09
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? · No0.7150.601$3.00$0.57
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.1200.041$0.98$1.90
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? · Yes0.2200.085$0.42$0.68

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-09 08:16Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.14$1.54
07-04 22:11Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?BUY0.715$3.57
06-23 19:47Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?BUY0.89$4.45
06-21 14:20Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?BUY0.963$6.74
06-19 02:25U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY0.9$11.70
06-16 23:15US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?BUY0.84$7.56
06-12 05:50Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?BUY0.11$1.10
06-07 07:42Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.26$2.60
06-05 07:23Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?BUY0.14$2.24
06-02 07:11Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?BUY0.841$4.21
05-30 23:22Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.12$2.88
05-27 05:15US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?BUY0.22$1.10
04-25 21:15Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?BUY0.262$1.83
04-25 21:15China coup attempt before 2027?BUY0.95$7.60
04-25 21:15Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.448$7.62