0xaae320063dd0cb03837e8d41250e234dfe32aaed
- Realised P&L
- $1.61
- Volume
- $654.00
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $52.16
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration40.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.935 | $12.15 | +$0.45 |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? · No | 0.840 | 0.915 | $8.23 | +$0.67 |
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? · No | 0.963 | 0.964 | $6.75 | +$0.01 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.841 | 0.910 | $4.55 | +$0.34 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.890 | 0.875 | $4.38 | −$0.07 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.165 | $4.29 | −$0.90 |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.830 | $4.15 | +$1.65 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.128 | 0.125 | $3.25 | −$0.09 |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? · No | 0.715 | 0.601 | $3.00 | −$0.57 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.041 | $0.98 | −$1.90 |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.085 | $0.42 | −$0.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.68at 0.166Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.26at 0.500Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
- +$1.15at 0.448Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.03at 0.928Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.950China coup attempt before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 08:16 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.54 |
| 07-04 22:11 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.715 | $3.57 |
| 06-23 19:47 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $4.45 |
| 06-21 14:20 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.963 | $6.74 |
| 06-19 02:25 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $11.70 |
| 06-16 23:15 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $7.56 |
| 06-12 05:50 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.10 |
| 06-07 07:42 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.60 |
| 06-05 07:23 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.24 |
| 06-02 07:11 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.841 | $4.21 |
| 05-30 23:22 | Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $2.88 |
| 05-27 05:15 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 04-25 21:15 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.262 | $1.83 |
| 04-25 21:15 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $7.60 |
| 04-25 21:15 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.448 | $7.62 |