0xaAaC79410dA880a3f17393293457670356f69C0F-1777391047351
0xaaac79410da880a3f17393293457670356f69c0f
- Realised P&L
- $-57.19
- Volume
- $5.5k
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $40.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.675 | $18.49 | −$1.51 |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? · No | 0.470 | 0.740 | $11.02 | +$4.02 |
| Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.038 | $4.70 | −$0.30 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.065 | $3.82 | −$6.18 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.177 | 0.117 | $1.33 | −$0.67 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.060 | $0.67 | −$0.33 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET · Up | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET · Down | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.22at 0.446Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
- +$6.09at 0.389Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- +$5.87at 0.630Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
- +$5.87at 0.460Kash Patel out by June 30?
- +$5.87at 0.460Will Trump say "Biden" during astronaut greeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 15:25 | Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.5499999587 | $4.00 |
| 07-05 15:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | SELL | 0.69 | $1.38 |
| 07-05 14:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET | SELL | 0.13 | $2.17 |
| 07-05 14:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET | BUY | 0.119999952 | $2.00 |
| 07-05 14:25 | Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? | BUY | 0.0409999923 | $5.00 |
| 06-12 18:39 | Kash Patel out by December 31? | BUY | 0.4699999651 | $7.00 |
| 05-12 20:09 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 13? | BUY | 0.0051740834 | $4.75 |
| 05-12 20:09 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 13? | BUY | 0.1089870124 | $5.00 |
| 05-12 20:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.95 |
| 05-12 20:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.32 | $5.33 |
| 05-12 09:07 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.1255742827 | $5.00 |
| 05-10 19:04 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.003960396 | $2.00 |
| 05-10 19:03 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $2.41 |
| 05-09 06:36 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $3.52 |
| 05-08 08:24 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 9? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |