akvnsgd
0xaa4f4da171bc30caabd02b45db9c42694d003369
- Realised P&L
- $-166.10
- Volume
- $37.4k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $63.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros · Houston Astros | 0.550 | 0.545 | $63.02 | −$0.58 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? · No | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$67.14 |
| Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders · Kolkata Knight Riders | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.60 |
| LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) · Gen.G | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$139.65 |
| Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants · Lucknow Super Giants | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$104.65 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? · No | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$56.17 |
| Suns vs. Lakers · Suns | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$159.22 |
| Maduro out in 2025? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$57.29 |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates · Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$111.70 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners · Seattle Mariners | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$88.28 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$158.03 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$318.04 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$132.60 |
| Timberwolves vs. 76ers · Timberwolves | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.07 |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$63.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$178.64at 0.890US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
- +$117.91at 0.390Lakers vs. Rockets
- +$113.87at 0.520Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?
- +$106.96at 0.926Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
- +$106.58at 0.495Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 03:23 | Will England win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.52 | $63.90 |
| 06-29 07:26 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.56 | $69.69 |
| 06-20 06:51 | Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners | BUY | 0.54 | $88.28 |
| 05-27 06:20 | Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | BUY | 0.52 | $111.70 |
| 05-19 02:09 | Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants | BUY | 0.46 | $104.65 |
| 05-13 08:32 | Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders | BUY | 0.42 | $75.60 |
| 05-06 08:25 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? | BUY | 0.61 | $158.03 |
| 05-01 08:50 | Lakers vs. Rockets | BUY | 0.39 | $75.39 |
| 05-01 08:50 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? | BUY | 0.58 | $64.05 |
| 04-27 07:38 | Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres | BUY | 0.51 | $102.49 |
| 04-25 07:55 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? | BUY | 0.42 | $55.17 |
| 04-25 07:55 | Stars vs. Wild | BUY | 0.45 | $77.33 |
| 04-19 05:15 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? | BUY | 0.52 | $121.55 |
| 04-03 05:41 | Magic vs. Mavericks | BUY | 0.7 | $75.61 |
| 04-03 05:40 | Timberwolves vs. 76ers | BUY | 0.45 | $30.55 |