0xa6B0CEA46964c2F96D18abA4B4E74Aa28eb43d89-1772184853277
0xa6b0cea46964c2f96d18aba4b4e74aa28eb43d89
- Realised P&L
- $905.85
- Volume
- $25.9k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $167.65
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.017 | $167.65 | −$32.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$903.41at 0.181US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$173.08at 0.183Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?
- +$45.51at 0.150Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
- +$-71.45at 0.248Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?
- +$-112.36at 0.056Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-14 08:27 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0196838551 | $200.00 |
| 06-03 13:07 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | SELL | 0.0134940467 | $23.91 |
| 04-12 16:38 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | BUY | 0.0564288157 | $100.00 |
| 04-08 05:25 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.996 | $1.1k |
| 04-07 21:37 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | SELL | 0.0446103516 | $63.73 |
| 04-07 21:25 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.1805312154 | $200.00 |
| 03-27 04:42 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | BUY | 0.0699999994 | $100.00 |
| 03-22 19:55 | Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%? | SELL | 0.0708395356 | $28.55 |
| 03-22 08:12 | Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%? | BUY | 0.2480882875 | $100.00 |
| 03-20 18:10 | Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | SELL | 0.25 | $113.77 |
| 03-20 18:10 | Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | SELL | 0.2471520975 | $668.30 |
| 03-16 20:26 | Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | BUY | 0.1499999984 | $68.26 |
| 03-16 19:31 | Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | BUY | 0.1831436691 | $495.22 |