Holden6628
0xa6a5d09531cf826b429ca3b03354bc05d715d53d
- Realised P&L
- $-0.16
- Volume
- $27.5k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $15.95
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 5? · No | 0.997 | 0.997 | $15.95 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.26at 0.987Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on February 18?
- +$0.09at 0.995Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 10?
- +$0.08at 0.994Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11?
- +$0.04at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22?
- +$0.02at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 04:22 | Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.004 | $7.96 |
| 06-22 08:35 | Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $9.66 |
| 05-19 04:29 | Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $9.66 |
| 05-13 03:30 | Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $9.55 |
| 04-25 04:01 | Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.76 |
| 04-23 08:00 | Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.92 |
| 04-22 08:51 | Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.009 | $9.99 |
| 04-21 08:03 | Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.08 |
| 04-20 07:05 | Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.009 | $9.99 |
| 03-23 02:57 | Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.981 | $597.43 |
| 03-21 02:48 | Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.982 | $571.52 |