998719826541651
0xa6784714e3124b4ec4dd152692cc2e1cf65add59
- Realised P&L
- $-157.38
- Volume
- $14.5k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $412.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.595 | $247.91 | −$2.08 |
| Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.270 | $164.63 | −$85.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.24at 0.590Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
- +$3.52at 0.800Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
- +$2.93at 0.620LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Group Stage
- +$2.50at 0.400Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
- +$2.49at 0.320Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 08:13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 30? | BUY | 0.9839999825 | $50.00 |
| 07-29 09:19 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL | 0.636 | $54.38 |
| 07-29 09:17 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL | 0.647 | $58.23 |
| 07-25 07:32 | Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.64 |
| 07-14 21:58 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0244337349 | $2.03 |
| 06-13 07:38 | LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI | SELL | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 06-13 05:31 | LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI | BUY | 0.9 | $0.99 |
| 06-01 02:13 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.00 |
| 05-29 05:44 | LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | BUY | 0.76 | $1.00 |