Hanspeter90
0xa592156e3b9c75d7d14e67740a254ae76d8b7cfd
- Realised P&L
- $23.02
- Volume
- $7.2k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $43.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.625 | $20.49 | +$0.49 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.440 | 0.455 | $10.34 | +$0.34 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.255 | $4.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.075 | $3.12 | −$1.88 |
| Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.007 | $3.09 | −$1.91 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.075 | $2.05 | −$0.95 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET · Up | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.00at 0.120Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$35.00at 0.125Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$24.41at 0.170Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$13.74at 0.517Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
- +$12.22at 0.551Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 10:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 09:35 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.4399999894 | $10.00 |
| 07-25 08:54 | Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | BUY | 0.0113160575 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 17:14 | Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.00 |
| 07-24 15:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | BUY | 0.6199999628 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 15:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 15:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | BUY | 0.7399999674 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 15:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | BUY | 0.879999831 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 15:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | BUY | 0.8799999859 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 10:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | BUY | 0.6899999917 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 10:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | BUY | 0.6599999604 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 07:41 | Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 07:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | BUY | 0.3699999674 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 07:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET | BUY | 0.699999972 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 07:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET | BUY | 0.6599999604 | $5.00 |