PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0xa4dd7a5f2af69061e0858b09bb72c5f5d7a5994c

Realised P&L
$29.40
Volume
$7.5k
Markets traded
77
Open portfolio
$25.01

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded77
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration43.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample48 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration45.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? · Yes0.1210.147$11.38+$2.04
Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? · Yes0.0840.087$5.67+$0.23
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series? · Yes0.1600.105$4.38$2.29
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? · Yes0.4200.475$1.19+$0.14
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? · Yes0.3800.345$1.04$0.11
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%? · Yes0.0850.039$0.52$0.61
Will the next elected US president be a woman? · Yes0.2100.195$0.39$0.03
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? · Yes0.1120.101$0.31$0.04
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes0.1400.075$0.13$0.11
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? · No0.0580.000$0.00$4.88
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? · Yes0.2400.000$0.00$4.93
Will Germany be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00$1.67
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? · No0.3700.000$0.00$19.40
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? · No0.1000.000$0.00$19.28
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? · Yes0.3560.000$0.00$16.17

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-26 06:25Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?SELL0.11$1.72
07-12 01:04Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?SELL0.077$2.69
07-11 16:43Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?SELL0.11$3.30
07-11 15:26Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?SELL0.077$0.73
07-11 08:52Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?SELL0.18$3.60
07-11 05:31Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?SELL0.3$2.11
07-10 13:14Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?SELL0.31$15.53
07-10 09:29Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?SELL0.35$1.75
07-10 06:44Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?SELL0.38$1.90
07-08 23:12Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?SELL0.084$1.69
07-08 05:54Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?SELL0.34$13.86
07-07 14:50Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?SELL0.72$27.40
07-06 16:19Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.325$3.24
07-06 12:30Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?SELL0.481$17.57
07-06 12:20Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?SELL0.482$9.64