Nightfr
0xa38e3ee734ca54ee2c926c6dfccd0392c28b5062
- Realised P&L
- $-2.8k
- Volume
- $466.8k
- Markets traded
- 668
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded668
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? · No | 0.974 | 0.890 | $468.63 | −$44.16 |
| Will Rodri join Real Madrid? · Yes | 0.702 | 0.760 | $324.86 | +$24.78 |
| Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? · Yes | 0.961 | 0.822 | $162.76 | −$27.43 |
| Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.095 | $41.78 | −$151.71 |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.018 | $9.25 | −$4.75 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.135 | $8.06 | +$2.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$406.85at 0.210Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
- +$295.11at 0.629Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
- +$180.00at 0.820Paraguay vs. France: O/U 6.5 Total Corners
- +$180.00at 0.820US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?
- +$128.71at 0.940Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 08:36 | Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.924 | $81.31 |
| 07-31 08:35 | Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? | BUY | 0.996 | $176.29 |
| 07-31 08:35 | Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? | BUY | 0.992 | $99.20 |
| 07-31 08:35 | Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? | BUY | 0.991 | $9.91 |
| 07-27 08:24 | Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team? | SELL | 0.03 | $2.91 |
| 07-27 08:24 | Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team? | SELL | 0.031 | $15.32 |
| 07-27 08:24 | Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team? | SELL | 0.032 | $16.32 |
| 07-26 20:08 | Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.99 | $79.20 |
| 07-26 20:07 | Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.989 | $29.67 |
| 07-26 19:55 | Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team? | SELL | 0.342 | $6.84 |
| 07-26 19:54 | Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team? | SELL | 0.344 | $30.49 |
| 07-26 19:53 | Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team? | SELL | 0.345 | $9.66 |
| 07-26 11:08 | Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? | BUY | 0.955 | $38.20 |
| 07-26 11:08 | Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? | BUY | 0.95 | $125.42 |
| 07-26 11:08 | Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? | BUY | 0.949 | $53.37 |