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0xa374d819827fa25d3f23d8336883007d9977ed09
- Realised P&L
- $-28.43
- Volume
- $37.8k
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $253.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · Yes | 0.300 | 1.000 | $200.00 | +$140.00 |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.855 | $53.07 | −$4.03 |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.24 |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$41.00 |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Texas A&M win the 2026 College Football National Championship? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.253 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.45 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Miami Florida win the 2026 College Football National Championship? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.30 |
| Will Jimmy Butler Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$103.35at 0.160Will Ohio State win the 2025 College Football Playoff?
- +$95.56at 0.268Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
- +$55.85at 0.791Trump releases Epstein list today?
- +$47.23at 0.090 Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff?
- +$45.00at 0.550Iran strike on Israel before December?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-18 19:14 | Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.76 | $35.20 |
| 01-09 03:40 | Will Miami Florida win the 2026 College Football National Championship? | SELL | 0.21 | $7.92 |
| 01-06 14:53 | College Football: Undefeated 15-0 team? | BUY | 0.993629529 | $471.96 |
| 01-06 14:51 | College Football: Undefeated 15-0 team? | BUY | 0.99 | $112.86 |
| 10-14 18:13 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 04-29 12:40 | Will Luka Doncic Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | BUY | 0.9815133219 | $40.15 |
| 04-20 19:07 | Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.032 | $100.35 |
| 04-01 21:00 | Will Melania Trump be deported? | BUY | 0.986 | $98.60 |
| 03-18 00:50 | Was JFK assassination an inside job? | BUY | 0.0369999965 | $10.00 |
| 03-04 18:26 | Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.10 |
| 03-04 18:24 | Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.005 | $1.25 |
| 02-28 21:17 | Will Trump make English the national language? | BUY | 0.5591041032 | $124.81 |
| 02-28 21:03 | Trump releases Epstein list today? | SELL | 0.995 | $272.08 |
| 02-28 00:07 | Trump releases Epstein list today? | BUY | 0.72 | $50.40 |
| 02-28 00:04 | Trump releases Epstein list today? | BUY | 0.81 | $81.00 |