0xa2dCcd83971D56fb4e7cE45C491a968b29a249f9-1771568307503
0xa2dccd83971d56fb4e7ce45c491a968b29a249f9
- Realised P&L
- $41.6k
- Volume
- $1.77M
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $14.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? · Yes | 0.695 | 0.655 | $8.2k | −$500.96 |
| Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee? · Yes | 0.675 | 0.785 | $4.7k | +$655.11 |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? · Yes | 0.638 | 0.609 | $1.1k | −$52.41 |
| Will Keith Gross be the FL-02 Republican nominee? · Yes | 0.681 | 0.615 | $786.67 | −$84.77 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.299 | $125.68 | −$4.41 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.0k |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.99 |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance · Colombia | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$330.00 |
| Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.5kat 0.508Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
- +$12.2kat 0.630Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$7.6kat 0.015Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$4.1kat 0.499Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
- +$3.2kat 0.755Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 22:04 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.66 | $816.41 |
| 08-02 01:33 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.72 | $948.23 |
| 08-02 01:30 | Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.6986401376 | $1.5k |
| 08-02 00:28 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.7064735667 | $2.1k |
| 08-01 22:21 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.6167504798 | $642.65 |
| 08-01 22:15 | Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.62912655 | $1.3k |
| 07-31 12:13 | Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.58 | $11.60 |
| 07-28 13:58 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.74 | $222.00 |
| 07-28 13:56 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.7663633333 | $4.6k |
| 07-03 19:09 | Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.1k |
| 07-03 19:06 | Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.3k |
| 07-03 18:27 | Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.65 | $3.2k |
| 07-03 18:27 | Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.5k |
| 07-03 18:25 | Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.2k |
| 05-09 13:32 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.02 | $2.0k |