vadermike
0x9e6826719160ea474596a5910e74a1f6b947d03f
- Realised P&L
- $-8.7k
- Volume
- $164.2k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $260.34
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.051 | $113.77 | −$173.42 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.044 | $92.40 | −$111.30 |
| Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.151 | 0.045 | $22.50 | −$53.25 |
| Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.145 | 0.027 | $12.17 | −$53.27 |
| Will XRP reach $3.60 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.035 | $10.35 | −$31.65 |
| Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.229 | 0.060 | $5.72 | −$16.10 |
| Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.147 | 0.040 | $2.95 | −$8.02 |
| Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.024 | $0.48 | −$1.92 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$103.13 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$384.80 |
| Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$578.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.637Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$-3.9kat 0.095Will Biden finish his term?
- +$-4.8kat 0.227Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-13 22:36 | Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2274979691 | $8.40 |
| 04-13 22:34 | Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.155 | $6.51 |
| 04-13 22:33 | Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.98 |
| 04-13 22:32 | Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.48 |
| 04-05 02:03 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $0.65 |
| 04-05 02:00 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $282.34 |
| 04-05 01:58 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.097 | $203.70 |
| 04-05 01:54 | Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.175 | $8.75 |
| 04-05 01:53 | Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1599714693 | $4.49 |
| 04-05 01:53 | Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1572721235 | $9.47 |
| 04-05 01:49 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | BUY | 0.51 | $196.00 |
| 04-05 01:46 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | BUY | 0.029 | $98.96 |
| 04-05 01:45 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? | BUY | 0.097 | $62.99 |
| 04-05 01:45 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? | BUY | 0.097 | $27.00 |
| 04-05 01:44 | Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.80 |