topple
0x9d68308c0d00cc0a42baaf6d843d0a29ae6687c9
- Realised P&L
- $-5.17
- Volume
- $12.0k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $132.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.994 | 0.997 | $130.88 | +$0.33 |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.845 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.113 | 0.002 | $0.03 | −$1.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.09at 0.570Netherlands vs. England - Who will advance?
- +$6.34at 0.790NVIDIA largest company in July?
- +$2.33at 0.430Kings vs. Red Wings
- +$1.67at 0.750Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?
- +$1.57at 0.560Eagles vs. Packers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-18 10:10 | Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? | BUY | 0.8399996472 | $2.00 |
| 06-25 13:44 | Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.2k |
| 06-25 13:44 | Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.1129999438 | $2.00 |
| 06-25 13:44 | Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 04-26 12:24 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.994 | $130.55 |
| 04-26 12:24 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 04-26 12:23 | Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $3.1k |
| 04-11 22:57 | Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.996 | $3.1k |
| 09-07 21:06 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 21:06 | Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-09-08? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 21:06 | Wings vs. Sparks | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 06-28 15:02 | Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $47–51M? | BUY | 0.9889998383 | $2.00 |
| 06-28 15:02 | Will "F1" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $43–47M? | BUY | 0.996 | $3.00 |
| 03-04 15:07 | Will Crystal Palace vs. Ipswich end in a draw? | BUY | 0.8099999922 | $2.09 |
| 03-04 15:06 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-08? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |