samsmash
0x9b95ffa9cbdd5a53fdcff8193cdfe28da995a426
- Realised P&L
- $-520.26
- Volume
- $44.4k
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $312.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.177 | 0.198 | $149.99 | +$15.56 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? · No | 0.580 | 0.825 | $115.37 | +$34.26 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No | 0.260 | 0.425 | $42.50 | +$16.50 |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.080 | $4.36 | −$0.03 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July? · No | 0.492 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$133.69at 0.348Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$77.00at 0.610Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
- +$56.97at 0.814US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$48.72at 0.678Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
- +$45.33at 0.410 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 16:42 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $17.68 |
| 07-28 16:42 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July? | BUY | 0.492 | $31.00 |
| 07-28 16:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.08 | $24.00 |
| 07-28 16:40 | UK Recession in 2026? | SELL | 0.0978521385 | $42.74 |
| 07-15 16:05 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $17.68 |
| 07-15 16:02 | Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $16.57 |
| 06-25 01:36 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.182 | $4.55 |
| 06-23 14:48 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? | BUY | 0.04 | $9.60 |
| 06-23 14:47 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? | BUY | 0.032 | $6.53 |
| 06-23 14:47 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? | BUY | 0.0256811594 | $4.43 |
| 06-23 14:47 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? | BUY | 0.014 | $2.67 |
| 06-23 14:45 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $77.50 Week of June 22 2026? | SELL | 0.112768 | $67.66 |
| 06-23 00:02 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $77.50 Week of June 22 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $138.00 |
| 06-22 10:52 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | SELL | 0.0303875189 | $38.41 |
| 06-22 08:40 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | SELL | 0.0533627295 | $23.54 |