0x998312a504c165bb0f7fa3b9f97d1ec2e7acb4a6
- Realised P&L
- $-3.49
- Volume
- $128.89
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $12.65
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.974 | $6.76 | +$1.76 |
| Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July? · Yes | 0.326 | 0.384 | $5.88 | +$0.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.92at 0.250Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$4.62at 0.230Will Tesla say "Quarter" 10+ times during earnings call?
- +$1.83at 0.390Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.07at 0.650Will Trump say "Security" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.04at 0.690Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 04:44 | Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July? | BUY | 0.3259999627 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 19:05 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999654 | $5.00 |
| 08-01 11:03 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999253 | $2.31 |
| 07-29 15:27 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-29 07:00 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-28 18:52 | Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.6599998949 | $2.01 |
| 07-28 10:49 | Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.45 | $1.53 |
| 07-27 23:33 | Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.17 |
| 07-27 09:18 | Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.43 | $1.29 |
| 07-26 21:09 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |
| 07-26 09:08 | Will Trump say "Military" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.463999957 | $4.23 |
| 07-25 21:07 | Will Trump say "Security" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.6499997374 | $1.98 |
| 07-25 09:06 | Will Trump say "Loan" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.7399999632 | $2.01 |
| 07-24 21:06 | Will Trump say "Shots fired" or "Shots will be fired" during White House Correspondents Dinner? | BUY | 0.2299999692 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 09:05 | Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.64 |