madbod77
0x973b8e74766a41fc7db3d4ba9486d4b3d47efa42
- Realised P&L
- $-16.08
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $12.06
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration52.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.175 | $6.30 | −$2.70 |
| US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.135 | $2.81 | −$2.19 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.065 | $1.77 | −$1.23 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.014 | $0.82 | −$0.18 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.014 | $0.35 | −$1.65 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026? · No | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Spain to score first vs. Argentina? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 20:35 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.0170000004 | $1.00 |
| 07-27 20:35 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.00 |
| 07-27 20:27 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 07-24 12:12 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1099999685 | $3.00 |
| 07-19 22:00 | US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999674 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 21:56 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 21:22 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.008999991 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 21:08 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4099999289 | $3.00 |
| 07-19 21:08 | Spain to score first vs. Argentina? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 07-09 15:46 | GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.0169999831 | $1.00 |
| 07-09 15:13 | US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $9.00 |