giugyugy
0x96eadf49709186f920a16d43c6c93c759c236995
- Realised P&L
- $-241.19
- Volume
- $6.8k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $205.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.034 | $204.90 | −$241.60 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.043 | $0.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Maple Leafs vs. Islanders · Maple Leafs | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.36at 0.560Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?
- +$2.04at 0.555Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
- +$1.25at 0.800Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?
- +$1.20at 0.760Jazz vs. Warriors
- +$1.00at 0.240ICE shooter charged by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 04:40 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0479999551 | $1.00 |
| 03-22 03:01 | Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.073 | $248.50 |
| 03-21 07:56 | Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.073 | $198.00 |
| 01-10 01:11 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 01-10 01:10 | ICE shooter charged by March 31? | SELL | 0.28 | $7.00 |
| 01-09 07:13 | ICE shooter charged by March 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $6.00 |
| 01-09 07:00 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $3.40 |
| 01-08 11:23 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $5.22 |
| 01-07 10:12 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.44 | $4.40 |
| 01-07 10:12 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.65 | $6.50 |
| 01-06 01:52 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $4.10 |
| 01-06 01:49 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.10 |
| 01-05 10:11 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.7 | $3.50 |
| 01-05 10:10 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 01-05 10:09 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | SELL | 0.75 | $7.84 |