0x8E18312Ef611c51089B255222D4f55a518ff037d-1780868310474
0x8e18312ef611c51089b255222d4f55a518ff037d
- Realised P&L
- $-990.62
- Volume
- $58.6k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $16.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.163 | $16.25 | +$10.25 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France | 0.597 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.417 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres · San Diego Padres | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky · Connecticut Sun | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$326.65at 0.683Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$245.16at 0.620Will France win on 2026-07-09?
- +$217.24at 0.580Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$217.24at 0.580Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?
- +$175.61at 0.820Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 09:40 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4181011184 | $200.00 |
| 08-02 19:18 | Will AD Tarma win on 2026-08-02? | SELL | 0.33 | $65.74 |
| 07-31 01:22 | Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky | BUY | 0.6999999996 | $200.00 |
| 07-31 01:11 | San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres | BUY | 0.6099999985 | $100.00 |
| 07-29 11:05 | Will AD Tarma win on 2026-08-02? | BUY | 0.5019932067 | $100.00 |
| 07-16 11:49 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4169999994 | $300.00 |
| 07-16 11:49 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5799999995 | $300.00 |
| 07-16 11:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $100.00 |
| 07-16 09:41 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.2699999963 | $50.00 |
| 07-16 09:40 | Will France win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.5 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 22:07 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5974999986 | $150.00 |
| 07-07 18:13 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | SELL | 0.999 | $138.74 |
| 07-07 12:45 | Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A | SELL | 0.5 | $64.90 |
| 07-07 11:03 | Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group A | BUY | 0.7703703627 | $100.00 |
| 07-07 10:53 | Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | BUY | 0.06 | $6.00 |