0x8d256CfA1A2384E354f4DBb2f60f2FB50E890867-1775008861152
0x8d256cfa1a2384e354f4dbb2f60f2fb50e890867
- Realised P&L
- $-306.28
- Volume
- $21.6k
- Markets traded
- 188
- Open portfolio
- $29.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded188
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.976 | $19.40 | +$2.30 |
| Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes | 0.780 | 1.000 | $9.60 | +$2.11 |
| Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes | 0.323 | 0.007 | $0.58 | −$24.36 |
| Will Charity Clark win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes | 0.407 | 0.002 | $0.18 | −$47.66 |
| Will Helen Dalton win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.29 |
| Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.06 |
| Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? · Yes | 0.598 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$92.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$54.46at 0.373Hawks vs. Cavaliers
- +$30.00at 0.400Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles
- +$27.56at 0.640Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants
- +$26.13at 0.480Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Terence Atmane
- +$24.98at 0.804Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-16 19:37 | Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary? | SELL | 0.75 | $1.03 |
| 04-16 18:41 | Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.27 |
| 04-16 03:54 | Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? | SELL | 0.94 | $16.92 |
| 04-16 02:28 | Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? | BUY | 0.59 | $16.81 |
| 04-16 02:28 | Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? | SELL | 0.5634210526 | $16.06 |
| 04-16 02:05 | Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.31 | $8.25 |
| 04-16 02:05 | Will Charity Clark win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.42 | $11.17 |
| 04-16 01:58 | Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.31 |
| 04-16 01:58 | Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? | BUY | 0.037 | $1.04 |
| 04-16 01:28 | Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? | BUY | 0.61 | $10.98 |
| 04-16 01:28 | Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives? | BUY | 0.039 | $1.09 |
| 04-16 00:09 | Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.99 |
| 04-15 23:22 | Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? | BUY | 0.86 | $17.11 |
| 04-15 23:22 | Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? | BUY | 0.08 | $0.88 |
| 04-15 20:18 | Will Charity Clark win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.43 | $10.88 |