0x8c0d88de35CF1FEAD5d34a5B78C45807Db7ED0A0-1775214645968
0x8c0d88de35cf1fead5d34a5b78c45807db7ed0a0
- Realised P&L
- $-373.70
- Volume
- $47.9k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $12.64
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.004 | $12.64 | −$39.35 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · No | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? · Yes | 0.172 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? · No | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.65at 0.470Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$-8.00at 0.006US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$-8.00at 0.004US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?
- +$-200.00at 0.005US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-26 21:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.47 | $2.35 |
| 04-26 21:43 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 04-12 18:58 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.029 | $10.00 |
| 04-12 18:58 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.0295932089 | $10.00 |
| 04-08 01:04 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | BUY | 0.004 | $8.00 |
| 04-08 01:03 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.006 | $8.00 |
| 04-07 15:51 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.005 | $200.00 |
| 04-03 19:17 | Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0169912442 | $32.00 |
| 04-03 12:04 | Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0159805676 | $10.00 |
| 04-03 11:51 | Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0090641847 | $10.00 |
| 04-03 11:36 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.3399999978 | $100.00 |