0x86a2c644a70a5a85e29fe65072ca10624beedb18
- Realised P&L
- $-35.93
- Volume
- $8.6k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $40.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.004 | $24.57 | −$38.61 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.889 | 0.696 | $15.58 | −$4.33 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · No | 0.370 | 0.065 | $0.35 | −$1.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.83at 0.375Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
- +$4.02at 0.260US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
- +$2.10at 0.107Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$1.71at 0.760US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$-5.00at 0.069Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 13:24 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8889999953 | $19.91 |
| 06-19 21:29 | Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? | BUY | 0.0690000011 | $5.00 |
| 05-30 22:55 | Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0089999999 | $63.19 |
| 05-30 22:53 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.11 | $68.89 |
| 05-14 09:39 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1099999974 | $36.97 |
| 05-14 09:27 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $13.52 |
| 05-14 09:25 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.49 | $24.93 |
| 05-13 14:38 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1099999916 | $11.25 |
| 05-13 11:52 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $11.69 |
| 05-09 19:17 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1 | $16.57 |
| 05-09 13:45 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $17.10 |
| 05-09 12:25 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.3699999112 | $2.00 |
| 05-09 12:23 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 05-09 12:23 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0899999599 | $2.00 |
| 05-09 12:20 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999836 | $9.50 |