Nickabc
0x866f68989c36e45ac69708699fcfa321721ad410
- Realised P&L
- $1.7k
- Volume
- $262.9k
- Markets traded
- 151
- Open portfolio
- $289.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded151
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.405 | $240.72 | −$26.75 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.065 | $27.30 | −$23.10 |
| Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026? · Yes | 0.299 | 0.135 | $20.98 | −$25.58 |
| Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.030 | $0.49 | −$0.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$665.61at 0.140MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$562.80at 0.530Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
- +$376.08at 0.430Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$363.58at 0.220Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner
- +$348.00at 0.130Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 05:41 | Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.059 | $5.19 |
| 06-01 17:40 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 06-01 17:28 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 05-21 17:48 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 05-13 13:42 | Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $12.01 |
| 05-07 15:47 | Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5 | $61.33 |
| 04-30 16:31 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.055 | $23.10 |
| 04-06 01:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 6? | SELL | 0.02523471 | $42.90 |
| 04-02 11:32 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.12 | $55.20 |
| 04-01 16:15 | EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0276178333 | $33.14 |
| 03-25 09:18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 25? | SELL | 0.0061515385 | $8.00 |
| 03-22 06:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 22? | SELL | 0.0094506073 | $18.90 |
| 03-17 16:52 | US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | SELL | 0.21 | $52.50 |
| 03-16 07:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 16? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.25 |
| 02-28 07:09 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.013 | $3.25 |