0x84a86ff2731043b6eb7af9bb61503b85f6f4cdd6
- Realised P&L
- $1.63
- Volume
- $519.00
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $40.17
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.833 | 0.875 | $17.50 | +$0.85 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.859 | 0.913 | $8.22 | +$0.49 |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? · Yes | 0.360 | 1.000 | $7.00 | +$4.48 |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.063 | $3.15 | +$1.70 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.720 | 0.835 | $1.67 | +$0.23 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.195 | $1.17 | +$0.09 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.165 | $0.82 | −$0.68 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.045 | $0.64 | −$0.39 |
| Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? · No | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.05 |
| Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? · Yes | 0.267 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.76at 0.421Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.64at 0.820U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
- +$0.60at 0.400Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
- +$0.23at 0.929Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
- +$0.12at 0.780Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 14:07 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.859 | $7.73 |
| 06-22 10:22 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.08 |
| 06-20 13:20 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $9.90 |
| 06-13 03:11 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.929 | $4.65 |
| 06-11 02:22 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.906 | $4.53 |
| 06-09 11:46 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $4.68 |
| 06-02 09:06 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.073 | $1.02 |
| 04-24 18:06 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $6.56 |
| 04-24 18:06 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.71 |
| 04-24 18:06 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.208 | $2.50 |
| 04-24 18:06 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.792 | $6.34 |
| 04-24 18:06 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.421 | $6.31 |
| 04-24 18:06 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.58 | $3.48 |
| 04-11 15:47 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.72 | $14.40 |
| 04-11 15:47 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $6.60 |