mferbots
0x83be19d8916ae3f8e3fd1b9807bd32a9a26a6f94
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $280.4k
- Markets traded
- 265
- Open portfolio
- $946.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded265
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$529.92at 0.360Solana Up or Down - February 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
- +$285.60at 0.490Solana Up or Down - February 19, 6AM ET
- +$236.50at 0.780Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
- +$233.64at 0.560Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
- +$151.47at 0.490Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 13:29 | Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? | SELL | 0.33 | $340.23 |
| 04-11 01:24 | Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? | BUY | 0.8 | $824.80 |
| 04-09 14:15 | Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election? | SELL | 0.25 | $68.50 |
| 04-09 04:58 | Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election? | BUY | 0.25 | $68.50 |
| 03-31 02:29 | Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.046 | $11.41 |
| 03-30 16:35 | Will Trump say "Sovereign / Sovereignty" in April? | SELL | 0.46 | $379.96 |
| 03-30 16:34 | Will Trump say "Sovereign / Sovereignty" in April? | SELL | 0.46 | $410.32 |
| 03-30 16:21 | Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 | SELL | 0.66 | $307.56 |
| 03-30 08:08 | Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 | BUY | 0.66 | $307.56 |
| 03-30 04:04 | Will Trump say "Sovereign / Sovereignty" in April? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.4k |
| 03-30 01:14 | Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? | BUY | 0.3 | $46.80 |
| 03-26 04:03 | Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.48 | $350.40 |
| 03-25 19:08 | Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.59 | $59.00 |
| 03-25 16:10 | Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will any team beat Vitality | SELL | 0.63 | $504.00 |
| 03-25 11:18 | Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will any team beat Vitality | BUY | 0.63 | $504.00 |