0x82c43C16cb797E71b37Cd172b6b19C37FAF12A10-1775986049040
0x82c43c16cb797e71b37cd172b6b19c37faf12a10
- Realised P&L
- $122.46
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $320.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? · Yes | 0.791 | 0.790 | $188.39 | −$0.30 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.855 | $131.94 | +$6.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.31at 0.780Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$51.31at 0.796Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
- +$12.20at 0.810Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-27 19:39 | Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? | BUY | 0.6999291128 | $64.18 |
| 06-01 20:11 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8099999924 | $52.00 |
| 05-31 18:43 | Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? | BUY | 0.848296729 | $124.51 |
| 05-31 16:50 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8099999997 | $125.00 |
| 04-20 10:49 | Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | BUY | 0.7958441021 | $200.00 |
| 04-20 10:48 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.984 | $252.31 |
| 04-12 09:34 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.7799999995 | $200.00 |