Anvil2001
0x81e369a867f061d78482a531a3292fb5fd14e598
- Realised P&L
- $-13.73
- Volume
- $30.7k
- Markets traded
- 2,147
- Open portfolio
- $179.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,147
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration7.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.04at 0.905Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
- +$2.40at 0.925Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
- +$1.89at 0.910Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?
- +$1.76at 0.916Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?
- +$1.76at 0.890Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 23:17 | Will Sean McCann be the MI-04 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.988 | $19.76 |
| 08-03 23:17 | Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | BUY | 0.93 | $19.53 |
| 08-03 23:17 | Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | BUY | 0.965 | $19.30 |
| 08-03 23:17 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.987 | $19.74 |
| 08-03 23:17 | Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.963 | $19.26 |
| 08-03 23:17 | Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.98 | $19.60 |
| 08-03 23:17 | Will Aisha Farooqi be the Democratic nominee for MI-11? | BUY | 0.98 | $19.60 |
| 08-03 23:17 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 08-03 22:55 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 6PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 08-03 21:43 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $14.85 |
| 08-03 20:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 4PM ET | BUY | 0.96 | $9.60 |
| 08-03 20:41 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on August 3? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 08-03 20:38 | Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on August 3? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 08-03 20:34 | Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on August 3? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 08-03 20:29 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on August 3? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |