donotthinktwice
0x819f9aa2e4da899e185762e03690415ea758f3e7
- Realised P&L
- $3.6k
- Volume
- $385.8k
- Markets traded
- 306
- Open portfolio
- $30.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded306
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.1kat 0.446Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.2kat 0.736Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$1.6kat 0.804Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
- +$1.3kat 0.476Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?
- +$1.1kat 0.468Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 08:24 | Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $563.92 |
| 08-04 07:35 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $24.00 |
| 08-04 07:32 | Will David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee? | BUY | 0.248875 | $39.82 |
| 08-04 07:29 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.0459225142 | $36.09 |
| 08-04 04:01 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.043 | $8.25 |
| 08-04 03:00 | Will XRP reach $1.40 in August? | BUY | 0.054 | $8.57 |
| 08-04 01:08 | Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.66 | $396.00 |
| 08-04 01:08 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.66 | $82.90 |
| 08-04 00:59 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.66 | $12.20 |
| 08-04 00:38 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.66 | $52.80 |
| 08-04 00:36 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.66 | $52.36 |
| 08-04 00:06 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by August 31? | BUY | 0.026 | $3.90 |
| 08-04 00:03 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.66 | $95.40 |
| 08-03 23:59 | Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.033 | $2.51 |
| 08-03 23:53 | Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.033 | $1.85 |