PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

donotthinktwice

0x819f9aa2e4da899e185762e03690415ea758f3e7

Realised P&L
$3.6k
Volume
$385.8k
Markets traded
306
Open portfolio
$30.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded306
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration44.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration46.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · No0.8590.865$14.1k+$102.77
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No0.7580.755$7.0k$29.69
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? · No0.3360.330$2.1k$38.14
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? · No0.6580.665$1.3k+$14.54
Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee? · No0.8190.905$989.26+$94.20
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? · No0.2520.265$604.87+$29.72
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? · No0.9200.915$560.86$3.06
Will David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee? · Yes0.0600.232$486.46+$359.17
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? · No0.7570.830$415.00+$36.60
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? · No0.3590.356$233.54$2.22
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? · No0.0420.028$226.09$110.36
Will Jared Moskowitz be the FL-25 Democratic nominee? · Yes0.8470.890$213.90+$10.44
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? · Yes0.1550.172$201.93+$19.86
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? · Yes0.8700.940$188.00+$14.00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? · No0.9640.978$183.95+$2.51

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-04 08:24Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?BUY0.92$563.92
08-04 07:35Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?BUY0.16$24.00
08-04 07:32Will David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee?BUY0.248875$39.82
08-04 07:29Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.0459225142$36.09
08-04 04:01Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.043$8.25
08-04 03:00Will XRP reach $1.40 in August?BUY0.054$8.57
08-04 01:08Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?BUY0.66$396.00
08-04 01:08Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?BUY0.66$82.90
08-04 00:59Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?BUY0.66$12.20
08-04 00:38Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?BUY0.66$52.80
08-04 00:36Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?BUY0.66$52.36
08-04 00:06Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by August 31?BUY0.026$3.90
08-04 00:03Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?BUY0.66$95.40
08-03 23:59Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?BUY0.033$2.51
08-03 23:53Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?BUY0.033$1.85