0x809D19Eca5cc2cE94E80AD5F49913FcAb249c03D-1769533960748
0x809d19eca5cc2ce94e80ad5f49913fcab249c03d
- Realised P&L
- $-67.40
- Volume
- $25.1k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.865 | $1.1k | +$54.88 |
| Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (March 29) · No | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$220.72 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? · No | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$264.00 |
| Will the winner of Beast Games: Season 2 be Strong or Smart? · Smart | 0.076 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.00 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) · No | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$455.56at 0.180Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference?
- +$249.59at 0.546Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?
- +$124.53at 0.800Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?
- +$104.75at 0.852Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$79.96at 0.669Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 21:41 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.8519999998 | $603.00 |
| 07-10 21:33 | Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? | SELL | 0.939 | $298.84 |
| 06-17 18:00 | Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.9426336494 | $300.00 |
| 06-17 17:55 | Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999999 | $1000.00 |
| 06-17 17:38 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.9 | $332.56 |
| 06-17 17:38 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.9 | $1.1k |
| 03-25 20:23 | Will Trump say "Death Tax" this week? (March 29) | SELL | 0.1398431267 | $25.94 |
| 03-25 17:20 | Will Trump say "Death Tax" this week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.44 | $81.62 |
| 03-25 17:17 | Will Trump say "Paid a big price" or "Paying a big price" this week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.78 | $45.24 |
| 03-25 17:17 | Will Trump say "Paid a big price" or "Paying a big price" this week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.7424442009 | $50.00 |
| 03-25 17:16 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $252.00 |
| 03-25 17:10 | Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.83 | $220.72 |
| 03-25 17:03 | Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.8601662852 | $300.00 |
| 03-24 15:28 | Will "Addiction" or "Drug" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.7846922363 | $69.72 |
| 03-24 14:26 | Will "Crack Cocaine" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.9075292513 | $200.00 |