1cc8d
0x802e8cea245acf99536af1e7a2c96f573c019737
- Realised P&L
- $-27.98
- Volume
- $42.0k
- Markets traded
- 102
- Open portfolio
- $5.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded102
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 August 3-9? · No | 0.995 | 0.991 | $5.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? · No | 0.979 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.79at 0.870Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
- +$0.65at 0.970Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
- +$0.47at 0.959Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$0.42at 0.963Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
- +$0.39at 0.971Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on January 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 02:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on August 4? | BUY | 0.9949999577 | $6.00 |
| 08-04 02:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.995 | $6.00 |
| 06-26 02:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? | BUY | 0.992 | $5.00 |
| 06-26 02:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? | BUY | 0.9939998171 | $5.00 |
| 06-10 12:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? | BUY | 0.996 | $5.00 |
| 06-10 12:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $10.00 |
| 06-10 12:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? | BUY | 0.9829999974 | $5.00 |
| 04-28 14:56 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.9949999254 | $10.00 |
| 04-28 14:56 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.978999914 | $11.00 |
| 04-28 14:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 29? | BUY | 0.9889999448 | $10.00 |
| 04-10 04:10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? | BUY | 0.9929999448 | $9.99 |
| 04-10 04:10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 11? | BUY | 0.9929999448 | $9.99 |
| 04-10 04:10 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.9589737863 | $11.00 |
| 04-10 04:09 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $10.98 |
| 04-10 04:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? | BUY | 0.9879999303 | $10.98 |