social.tm
0x7eaf6f08f5bbaec2738aef03b99cd1adf10134d1
- Realised P&L
- $2.0k
- Volume
- $20.8k
- Markets traded
- 320
- Open portfolio
- $786.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded320
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration78.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.129Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$603.71at 0.129Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?
- +$149.67at 0.002Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 20?
- +$147.83at 0.575Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5
- +$145.30at 0.228Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 23:07 | Norway vs. England: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | BUY | 0.52 | $52.00 |
| 07-11 21:20 | Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.5749999991 | $200.00 |
| 07-07 21:02 | Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.3599999977 | $50.00 |
| 07-07 20:08 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 07-06 21:13 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.39 | $39.00 |
| 06-14 22:57 | Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? | BUY | 0.87 | $174.00 |
| 06-07 16:24 | Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.01 |
| 06-07 16:16 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 7? | BUY | 0.9663689179 | $13.31 |
| 06-07 16:16 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 7? | BUY | 0.7237815126 | $8.61 |
| 06-07 16:16 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 7? | BUY | 0.68 | $1.43 |
| 06-07 16:16 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.99 |
| 06-07 16:16 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 7? | BUY | 0.94 | $0.22 |
| 06-07 16:16 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 7? | BUY | 0.979 | $13.71 |
| 06-07 16:16 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7? | BUY | 0.995 | $13.93 |
| 06-07 16:16 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.98 |