0x79f16e8e3e72a698fbd43921125a40f9857fdab7
- Realised P&L
- $-222.16
- Volume
- $4.3k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $122.55
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.159 | 0.051 | $117.43 | −$244.97 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.034 | $5.13 | −$5.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$134.30at 0.263Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$53.04at 0.220Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$-9.31at 0.037Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
- +$-9.98at 0.100Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?
- +$-10.00at 0.130US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-15 06:50 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $10.71 |
| 05-11 16:11 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.070874497 | $30.14 |
| 05-11 15:29 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $9.00 |
| 05-11 06:24 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999971 | $18.89 |
| 03-06 00:59 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.1286228928 | $29.79 |
| 03-06 00:38 | Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $9.98 |
| 03-06 00:33 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.0369999963 | $9.31 |
| 03-06 00:30 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | BUY | 0.0578575772 | $13.00 |
| 03-04 19:17 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.2271373399 | $159.38 |
| 03-04 07:52 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999922 | $20.00 |
| 03-04 07:39 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 03-02 14:06 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $68.00 |
| 03-02 14:06 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.998 | $68.04 |
| 02-19 20:37 | Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $36.00 |
| 02-03 21:21 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999888 | $10.00 |