I0I0I0
0x758c7982c9086515eb40f4035f80170d5293074a
- Realised P&L
- $22.1k
- Volume
- $983.9k
- Markets traded
- 72
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded72
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration77.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.044 | $1.4k | −$1.7k |
| Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.011 | $121.46 | −$823.60 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · No | 0.030 | 0.004 | $46.01 | −$260.26 |
| Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.089 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$920.77 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.9k |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.13 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 24? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$180.29 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$104.59 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 24? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$281.27 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 15? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$204.63 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$261.80 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$348.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.5kat 0.054Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$10.5kat 0.060US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.070US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$852.21at 0.050Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 25?
- +$355.13at 0.045Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:00 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.0210000001 | $6.62 |
| 08-02 20:59 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.018 | $15.61 |
| 08-02 20:59 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.017 | $23.14 |
| 08-02 10:32 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.0339737083 | $260.92 |
| 07-31 18:17 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.0168247641 | $79.00 |
| 07-31 18:11 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.014 | $42.32 |
| 07-31 18:10 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.0100930103 | $77.05 |
| 07-31 18:07 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.0059472235 | $62.79 |
| 07-29 19:37 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.109999999 | $88.52 |
| 07-29 19:37 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $67.32 |
| 07-29 19:09 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $125.25 |
| 07-29 18:56 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $98.97 |
| 07-29 18:51 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $172.49 |
| 07-29 18:51 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $142.34 |
| 07-26 15:27 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1052329019 | $8.49 |