Herdoniast
0x74f5e292768d6b28e8959007f05f6e340a37da4f
- Realised P&L
- $-34.31
- Volume
- $572.99
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $76.86
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration26.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? · No | 0.850 | 1.000 | $12.00 | +$1.80 |
| Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.945 | $11.34 | +$5.34 |
| Ledger IPO closing market cap above $7B? · No | 0.500 | 0.882 | $10.59 | +$4.59 |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? · Yes | 0.300 | 1.000 | $10.00 | +$7.00 |
| Ventuals FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.960 | 0.975 | $8.78 | +$0.13 |
| Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? · $1,000 | 0.460 | 0.545 | $8.18 | +$1.27 |
| Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.940 | 0.955 | $8.12 | +$0.13 |
| Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No | 0.950 | 0.925 | $7.86 | −$0.21 |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.70 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.97at 0.500Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$5.89at 0.500Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?
- +$5.87at 0.500Will Chainlink reach $16 in March?
- +$5.87at 0.500Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$2.20at 0.870Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-23 13:55 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | BUY | 0.986 | $39.44 |
| 03-22 03:58 | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $29.79 |
| 03-22 03:55 | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $29.79 |
| 03-21 13:27 | EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.977 | $17.59 |
| 03-21 13:25 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.85 | $10.20 |
| 03-21 13:23 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | BUY | 0.88 | $13.20 |
| 03-21 11:41 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY | 0.67 | $6.70 |
| 03-21 11:38 | Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.87 | $17.40 |
| 03-12 12:19 | Ventuals FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.96 | $8.64 |
| 03-10 07:44 | Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.94 | $7.99 |
| 03-10 07:31 | Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9190030512 | $8.27 |
| 03-10 07:22 | Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.95 | $8.07 |