MoneyButton
0x7100c8cad76b4f343fd29f2e457f80221437e693
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $114.4k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $52.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration90.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.025 | $35.55 | +$8.91 |
| Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.002 | $9.45 | −$61.37 |
| Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.001 | $7.19 | −$31.13 |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? · No | 0.177 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$107.97 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.110Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$71.28at 0.370GPT ads by March 31?
- +$27.89at 0.690Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$27.49at 0.048Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$19.91at 0.430Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Slovak Prime Minister?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-29 21:01 | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | BUY | 0.177 | $8.19 |
| 03-17 10:00 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting? | BUY | 0.14 | $16.80 |
| 02-07 13:00 | Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999995 | $100.00 |
| 02-07 08:05 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.83 | $165.38 |
| 01-30 19:50 | Will Trump say "Midterm Election" this week? (February 1) | BUY | 0.12 | $12.00 |
| 01-30 18:52 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.8699999957 | $100.00 |
| 01-28 17:14 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999989 | $100.00 |
| 01-25 07:35 | U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? | BUY | 0.3899999982 | $100.00 |
| 01-19 08:24 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.69 | $137.48 |
| 01-18 05:25 | GPT ads by March 31? | SELL | 0.9184520274 | $119.37 |
| 01-17 13:04 | Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Prize" during meetings with Slovak Prime Minister? | BUY | 0.6541302594 | $15.00 |
| 01-17 13:04 | Will Trump say "Venezuela" or "Machado" during meetings with Slovak Prime Minister? | BUY | 0.5463258691 | $15.00 |
| 01-17 12:57 | Will Trump say "Tariff" during meetings with Slovak Prime Minister? | BUY | 0.5371093724 | $15.00 |
| 01-17 12:56 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during meetings with Slovak Prime Minister? | BUY | 0.5599999895 | $15.00 |
| 01-17 12:56 | Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Slovak Prime Minister? | BUY | 0.4296371456 | $15.00 |