0x6f9Ff68Eb6c4150ecdE3a397e1B523B50bD1a2ac-1767608952915
0x6f9ff68eb6c4150ecde3a397e1b523b50bd1a2ac
- Realised P&L
- $-156.26
- Volume
- $4.4k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $187.68
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| António Guterres out by December 31? · Yes | 0.276 | 0.225 | $122.29 | −$27.71 |
| Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? · No | 0.020 | 0.630 | $47.16 | +$45.67 |
| Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.398 | $18.23 | +$11.82 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.319 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$55.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$72.89at 0.360Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$-53.92at 0.141Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-25 08:37 | António Guterres out by December 31? | BUY | 0.2759913168 | $150.00 |
| 04-25 08:25 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.0683990038 | $51.08 |
| 01-09 16:15 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3194192377 | $55.00 |
| 01-08 12:24 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.3599999972 | $41.00 |
| 01-07 07:10 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.1405976337 | $105.00 |
| 01-05 13:26 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $100.00 |
| 01-05 13:26 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0379999993 | $50.00 |