Kartonka
0x6cacef79063e9866b80c66ce8e48ab1dfd9a4a0e
- Realised P&L
- $-55.63
- Volume
- $111.2k
- Markets traded
- 112
- Open portfolio
- $1.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded112
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $1.44 | −$1.44 |
| Pelicans vs. Rockets · Pelicans | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? · Yes | 0.980 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons · Cavaliers | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.30 |
| Pistons vs. Spurs · Pistons | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.90 |
| Warriors vs. Wizards · Wizards | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Magic vs. Hawks · Magic | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.40 |
| Raptors vs. Pelicans · Raptors | 0.569 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Jazz vs. Bucks · Jazz | 0.209 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Wizards vs. Celtics · Wizards | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Wizards vs. Heat · Wizards | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.40 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Nets vs. Heat · Nets | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.10 |
| Jazz vs. 76ers · Jazz | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Bulls vs. Clippers · Bulls | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.38at 0.289Heat vs. Hornets
- +$6.53at 0.380Magic vs. Heat
- +$3.25at 0.480Celtics vs. Cavaliers
- +$2.80at 0.500Hawks vs. Bucks
- +$2.58at 0.529Suns vs. Bucks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-24 14:04 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 17:48 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 17:55 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 11:25 | Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $18.82 |
| 06-21 11:23 | Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $19.00 |
| 06-21 11:21 | Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $19.00 |
| 06-21 11:09 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 11:08 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 19? | SELL | 0.997 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 11:08 | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 11:08 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 11:27 | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 17:27 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 17:27 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 17:27 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 06-18 17:27 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 19? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.00 |