0x69e92d4917102b8f51326fb74562938629caa06e
- Realised P&L
- $-287.52
- Volume
- $18.9k
- Markets traded
- 529
- Open portfolio
- $18.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded529
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET · Up | 0.510 | 1.000 | $10.27 | +$5.03 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET · Up | 0.510 | 1.000 | $7.84 | +$3.84 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET · Up | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET · Up | 0.493 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET · Up | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET · Up | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.62 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$53.69at 0.199Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1?
- +$49.50at 0.140Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 5?
- +$37.86at 0.376Ethereum Up or Down - July 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
- +$33.15at 0.339Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 17?
- +$28.50at 0.262Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 23:22 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999922 | $5.24 |
| 08-04 23:22 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999541 | $4.00 |
| 08-04 23:22 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET | BUY | 0.4932182491 | $4.00 |
| 08-04 23:22 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET | BUY | 0.4799999568 | $4.00 |
| 08-04 23:22 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 23:09 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET | BUY | 0.489999951 | $4.60 |
| 08-04 23:09 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET | BUY | 0.4711538362 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 23:09 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $10.10 |
| 08-04 23:01 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | BUY | 0.4099999767 | $8.62 |
| 08-04 23:00 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET | BUY | 0.4899999804 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 23:00 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET | BUY | 0.359999977 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 10:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET | BUY | 0.3699999586 | $4.56 |
| 08-03 10:03 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | BUY | 0.4899999804 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 10:01 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5699999307 | $2.55 |
| 08-03 09:58 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET | BUY | 0.4803921192 | $5.00 |