0x69c4733e3309fd90cf8b29d6d84302a9cd46c62d
- Realised P&L
- $3.09
- Volume
- $557.00
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $82.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.959 | $47.95 | +$22.95 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.935 | $14.03 | +$0.53 |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? · No | 0.974 | 0.975 | $5.85 | +$0.00 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.464 | 0.696 | $4.87 | +$1.62 |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.063 | $3.15 | +$1.60 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.041 | $2.05 | −$22.95 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.195 | $1.75 | +$0.31 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.536 | 0.304 | $1.52 | −$1.16 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.155 | $1.40 | −$0.04 |
| Will no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.45at 0.500Modi out by December 31, 2026?
- +$5.07at 0.500Will no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?
- +$0.35at 0.873Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.21at 0.907Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
- +$0.10at 0.922Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 20:25 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $12.32 |
| 07-04 18:12 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.974 | $5.84 |
| 06-30 15:26 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 06-26 22:32 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.963 | $6.74 |
| 06-25 19:06 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.40 |
| 06-21 10:55 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $8.10 |
| 06-07 21:34 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.40 |
| 06-03 19:54 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.44 |
| 05-21 10:43 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $6.80 |
| 05-21 10:43 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.44 |
| 05-21 10:42 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.50 |
| 05-21 10:42 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.464 | $3.25 |
| 05-21 10:42 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.536 | $2.68 |
| 05-21 10:42 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.0731176471 | $1.24 |
| 05-21 10:41 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.966 | $8.69 |