Darios2geo
0x6815b0ab8f3e88c8d075307d1d19133ef588e90f
- Realised P&L
- $6.7k
- Volume
- $259.0k
- Markets traded
- 129
- Open portfolio
- $37.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded129
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.195 | 0.130 | $26.00 | −$13.00 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.055 | $11.00 | −$63.00 |
| Spread: Spain (-1.5) · Spain | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$250.00 |
| Spread: England (-1.5) · England | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 · Over | 0.077 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Spread: Germany (-1.5) · Germany | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance · Germany | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$498.80 |
| Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 · Over | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.00 |
| United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 · Over | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
| Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Spain? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$114.00 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots · No | 0.154 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$160.00 |
| Spread: Argentina (-2.5) · Argentina | 0.192 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.631Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
- +$2.3kat 0.470Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$2.2kat 0.239US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
- +$946.40at 0.466US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
- +$924.80at 0.578Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 01:14 | Spread: Argentina (-2.5) | BUY | 0.1924999994 | $200.00 |
| 07-11 23:06 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5849999993 | $300.00 |
| 07-11 23:02 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5674999999 | $100.00 |
| 07-11 22:39 | Will England win on 2026-07-11? | SELL | 0.315 | $65.62 |
| 07-11 22:39 | Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5 | SELL | 0.1925 | $89.11 |
| 07-11 22:39 | Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5 | SELL | 0.1975 | $10.90 |
| 07-11 22:23 | Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | SELL | 0.283619029 | $101.29 |
| 07-11 22:21 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6049999995 | $200.00 |
| 07-11 22:03 | Will England win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.4799999983 | $100.00 |
| 07-11 22:03 | Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | BUY | 0.2799999981 | $100.00 |
| 07-11 22:01 | Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.482499999 | $250.00 |
| 07-06 17:38 | Spread: Spain (-1.5) | BUY | 0.2799999995 | $250.00 |
| 07-06 17:36 | Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | BUY | 0.1537814621 | $160.00 |
| 07-06 16:45 | Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Spain? | BUY | 0.0329999997 | $114.00 |
| 07-03 23:36 | Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.0769999967 | $20.00 |