0x67b732d797cc7014e9161720a6e1eecf881c5b90
- Realised P&L
- $495.98
- Volume
- $6.8k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $60.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? · Yes | 0.429 | 0.980 | $49.82 | +$28.01 |
| Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? · Yes | 0.096 | 0.014 | $9.98 | −$58.40 |
| Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.001 | $0.39 | −$273.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$190.84at 0.785Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
- +$150.25at 0.780Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
- +$105.24at 0.800Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 22:08 | Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? | SELL | 0.9710380714 | $679.73 |
| 06-30 22:11 | Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.09 |
| 06-28 13:51 | Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.15 |
| 06-22 13:48 | Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? | BUY | 0.43 | $285.95 |
| 06-22 06:53 | Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? | BUY | 0.1 | $47.18 |
| 06-21 14:30 | Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? | BUY | 0.09 | $29.48 |
| 06-21 14:24 | Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? | BUY | 0.35 | $212.74 |
| 06-09 11:26 | Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL | 0.986 | $533.89 |
| 06-09 11:19 | Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | SELL | 0.987 | $24.95 |