ArdillarRabiossa
0x6293cbc9f79b2d1573eaffc7afbe2a4e6b47d14d
- Realised P&L
- $-138.02
- Volume
- $87.9k
- Markets traded
- 123
- Open portfolio
- $1.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded123
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.017 | $1.19 | +$0.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$58.72at 0.025Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
- +$29.51at 0.022Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
- +$10.62at 0.397Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
- +$6.78at 0.001Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
- +$6.05at 0.016Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 20:14 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-13 18:51 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.20 |
| 07-10 07:51 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.05 |
| 07-10 07:40 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 07-09 21:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET | BUY | 0.25 | $1.25 |
| 07-09 12:58 | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.08 |
| 07-09 11:42 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.089 | $3.92 |
| 07-09 10:10 | GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.15 |
| 07-09 08:12 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $17.85 |
| 07-08 04:18 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.026 | $1.72 |
| 07-07 17:13 | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.012 | $2.30 |
| 07-07 16:03 | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.99 |
| 07-07 15:56 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.317 | $2.55 |
| 07-07 15:56 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.669 | $5.28 |
| 07-07 15:50 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |