0x6185ecc8af4c37f81318eae9bd1457032d83e9cf
- Realised P&L
- $-1.87
- Volume
- $408.00
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $65.49
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.556 | 0.835 | $26.72 | +$8.92 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.408 | 0.165 | $9.90 | −$14.56 |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.958 | $8.62 | +$4.12 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No | 0.890 | 0.935 | $7.48 | +$0.36 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.885 | $5.31 | +$0.15 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.790 | 0.875 | $4.38 | +$0.42 |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.105 | $1.05 | −$0.35 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.125 | $0.88 | −$0.59 |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.055 | $0.66 | −$0.66 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.045 | $0.50 | −$0.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.49at 0.907Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
- +$0.48at 0.210Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
- +$0.01at 0.942Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.880Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.027Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 17:31 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $7.12 |
| 07-10 13:12 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.30 |
| 07-01 21:22 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.027 | $1.08 |
| 06-21 03:15 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $5.16 |
| 06-19 02:20 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.40 |
| 05-21 21:37 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.32 |
| 05-21 21:37 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $6.16 |
| 04-26 16:29 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.907 | $10.88 |
| 04-26 16:29 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.093 | $1.02 |
| 04-22 13:14 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $7.90 |
| 04-22 13:14 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.73 |
| 04-22 13:14 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.934 | $6.54 |
| 04-22 13:14 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $11.18 |
| 04-11 16:46 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? | BUY | 0.942 | $4.71 |
| 04-09 16:06 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $5.98 |