0x5f7dbc2c21c0f076cdc24f5a0a3d8208a935405c
- Realised P&L
- $-173.25
- Volume
- $18.9k
- Markets traded
- 350
- Open portfolio
- $48.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded350
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.966 | $14.57 | +$1.59 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.963 | $13.34 | +$1.14 |
| Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.950 | $6.96 | +$0.07 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? · Yes | 0.950 | 1.000 | $6.08 | +$0.30 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? · No | 0.950 | 1.000 | $3.32 | +$0.17 |
| Weed rescheduled by March 31? · No | 0.930 | 1.000 | $2.37 | +$0.17 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 1.000 | $1.86 | +$0.76 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · No | 0.542 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.97 |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.57at 0.862Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
- +$13.78at 0.273Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
- +$11.34at 0.337XRP Up or Down - January 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
- +$9.43at 0.338Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
- +$8.39at 0.640US government shutdown Saturday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-30 10:31 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.94 | $0.18 |
| 01-30 10:29 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.94 | $0.03 |
| 01-30 10:28 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.94 | $0.01 |
| 01-30 10:22 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET | BUY | 0.1699998779 | $1.09 |
| 01-30 10:22 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET | SELL | 0.82 | $1.22 |
| 01-30 10:21 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.44 | $0.00 |
| 01-30 10:21 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET | BUY | 0.7299999735 | $1.08 |
| 01-30 10:14 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | SELL | 0.93 | $0.06 |
| 01-30 10:14 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | SELL | 0.89 | $0.09 |
| 01-30 10:14 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | SELL | 0.98 | $0.03 |
| 01-30 10:14 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | SELL | 0.98 | $0.02 |
| 01-30 10:13 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | SELL | 0.95 | $0.05 |
| 01-30 10:13 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | SELL | 0.94 | $0.08 |
| 01-30 10:13 | Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $1.10 |
| 01-30 10:13 | Solana Up or Down - January 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | SELL | 0.72 | $0.91 |