wwwa
0x5f7bd9d773dff1457cae9dec44349a660159a114
- Realised P&L
- $114.97
- Volume
- $3.5k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $231.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Stavky by September 30? · No | 0.750 | 0.725 | $231.56 | −$7.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$83.84at 0.650Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?
- +$42.13at 0.403Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
- +$32.14at 0.794Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?
- +$17.61at 0.821Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?
- +$13.86at 0.230Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 06:02 | Will Russia capture Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.75 | $239.55 |
| 06-01 17:47 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? | BUY | 0.649999999 | $155.71 |
| 05-02 19:29 | Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? | BUY | 0.793577908 | $123.57 |
| 04-26 13:07 | Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30? | BUY | 0.9199998626 | $6.16 |
| 04-21 15:32 | Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.964 | $6.81 |
| 04-14 20:09 | Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30? | BUY | 0.9 | $3.80 |
| 04-14 20:09 | Epstein client list released by June 30? | SELL | 0.13 | $3.25 |
| 04-02 17:26 | Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30? | BUY | 0.8099999983 | $71.00 |
| 02-27 18:41 | Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.33 |
| 02-24 14:22 | Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $17.00 |
| 02-17 10:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET | BUY | 0.5383580081 | $1.94 |
| 02-17 10:02 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | SELL | 0.69 | $12.63 |
| 02-14 17:59 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | BUY | 0.7099999902 | $13.00 |
| 02-13 19:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $0.99 |
| 02-13 19:12 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET | BUY | 0.7399999457 | $2.94 |