belief5
0x5debec2f0536076260a660d4bd6b1d75e930ccdd
- Realised P&L
- $-39.0k
- Volume
- $3.62M
- Markets traded
- 1,319
- Open portfolio
- $763.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,319
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration14.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.6kat 0.312Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
- +$7.5kat 0.218Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?
- +$7.1kat 0.411Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?
- +$6.9kat 0.447Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
- +$5.8kat 0.206Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 13:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.43 | $1.29 |
| 07-31 13:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.44 | $1.32 |
| 07-30 11:37 | ITF Wetzlar: Murkel Dellien vs Lars Goran Verwerft | SELL | 0.97 | $5.82 |
| 07-30 11:36 | Vancouver: Harriet Dart vs Emma Dong | SELL | 0.999 | $18.56 |
| 07-30 11:36 | Liberec: Franco Roncadelli vs Norbert Gombos | SELL | 0.999 | $278.66 |
| 07-28 12:54 | Targu Mures: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu | BUY | 0.767 | $7.67 |
| 07-23 07:39 | ITF Huamantla: Oliver Sanders vs Joaquin Bianchi | SELL | 0.8 | $24.00 |
| 07-23 06:44 | ITF Huamantla: Oliver Sanders vs Joaquin Bianchi | BUY | 0.85 | $25.50 |
| 07-21 13:09 | Zug: Juan Bautista Torres vs Henry Bernet | SELL | 0.999 | $8.00 |
| 07-21 13:09 | Livesport Prague Open: Xinyu Gao vs Lilli Tagger | SELL | 0.999 | $59.94 |
| 07-21 10:57 | Generali Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Shevchenko | SELL | 0.111 | $2.22 |
| 07-21 10:55 | Generali Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Shevchenko | SELL | 0.16 | $0.80 |
| 07-21 10:55 | Hamburg European Open: Darja Semenistaja vs Sinja Kraus | SELL | 0.002 | $0.23 |
| 07-21 10:55 | Livesport Prague Open: Maria Timofeeva vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich | SELL | 0.999 | $13.11 |
| 07-21 10:55 | Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Yue Yuan | SELL | 0.92 | $59.77 |