sdfgsreg
0x5af3ab9e515059aa34a8f7900edc76cb1504462b
- Realised P&L
- $-110.50
- Volume
- $48.3k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $43.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.880 | 1.000 | $25.00 | +$3.00 |
| Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.772 | $18.65 | −$2.35 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 27? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.918 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$68.00 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.736 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.77at 0.810US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
- +$6.13at 0.710MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$3.36at 0.862Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?
- +$2.88at 0.005Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$1.53at 0.932US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-08 02:54 | Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9179999998 | $68.00 |
| 06-08 02:54 | Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.8699999959 | $21.00 |
| 06-08 02:53 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7359564616 | $23.00 |
| 06-08 02:52 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $67.76 |
| 05-28 10:34 | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 05-28 10:33 | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY | 0.9319999986 | $21.00 |
| 05-28 10:33 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999984 | $55.00 |
| 05-28 10:33 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | SELL | 0.9516055977 | $77.86 |
| 05-20 08:38 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.9409999996 | $77.00 |
| 05-20 08:37 | Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.9907149425 | $25.86 |
| 05-20 08:37 | Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.993 | $25.79 |
| 05-17 03:33 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999579 | $15.00 |
| 05-17 03:33 | Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.861981651 | $22.50 |
| 05-17 03:33 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $22.00 |
| 04-19 10:03 | Will Ye said be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.70 |