PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

IceLightning

0x58641dbd9128db522f206285343b79aae8c976b9

Realised P&L
$-5.5k
Volume
$861.0k
Markets traded
6,755
Open portfolio
$15.74

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded6,755
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration41.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration14.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.1040.070$2.26$1.07
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · Yes0.2060.095$1.94$2.28
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? · Yes0.1800.095$1.90$1.70
Glean IPO before 2027? · Yes0.1500.085$1.70$1.30
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026? · Yes0.0690.074$1.48+$0.10
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026? · Yes0.1800.035$1.26$5.30
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? · Yes0.1800.125$1.25$0.55
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? · Yes0.1750.075$1.11$1.47
Brex IPO before 2027? · Yes0.0830.012$0.48$2.84
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · Yes0.0150.037$0.47+$0.28
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? · Yes0.0900.023$0.46$1.34
Rippling IPO before 2027? · Yes0.1100.115$0.41+$0.02
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026? · Yes0.0760.117$0.27+$0.09
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0550.045$0.25$0.05
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes0.0460.005$0.25$2.05

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-06 16:11Ethereum Up or Down - July 6, 12PM ETBUY0.161$6.44
07-06 16:05Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ETBUY0.34$1.70
07-06 16:05Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ETBUY0.34$6.28
07-06 16:05Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ETBUY0.35$1.75
07-06 15:06Ethereum Up or Down - July 6, 11AM ETBUY0.29$11.60
07-06 15:01Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ETBUY0.74$8.86
07-06 14:39Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ETBUY0.2461866023$19.37
07-06 14:26Bitcoin Up or Down on July 6?BUY0.16$11.13
07-06 14:26Bitcoin Up or Down on July 6?BUY0.16$14.21
07-06 14:25XRP Up or Down - July 6, 10AM ETBUY0.0658275$2.63
07-06 14:25Bitcoin Up or Down on July 6?BUY0.15$2.94
07-06 14:25Bitcoin Up or Down on July 6?BUY0.09$0.90
07-06 14:14Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ETBUY0.05$2.98
07-06 14:04Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ETBUY0.25$4.60
07-06 14:03Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ETBUY0.12$3.93